Spatial analysis of the probability and severity of flood events in Rivers and Bayelsa States, Niger Delta Region, Nigeria

The present study examined the spatial analysis of the probability and severity of flood events in Rivers and Bayelsa States, Niger Delta Region, Nigeria. Archive data of flood events from NEMA were made use from 2012 to 2018 with a view to computing the trend surface of flood event within this period in the study area. Also, 400 copies of questionnaire were administered to the residents of the study area to elicit information on the flood events in the study locations. Descriptive statistics were applied in the data analysis. Findings showed that that flood height events of 2012 was the highest among the years and the least was in 2018. The trend surface analysis of flood height from 2012 to 2018 revealed that the flood height was reducing at a rate of 0.4714 ft over the period considered for this study and 39.75% of the variation in the flood height could be explained by the different years. However, Kolokuma/Opokuma and Yenagoa LGAs showed the highest prominence in the flood height and the least was found in Sagbama LGA. The probability of flood across the LGA sampled, findings revealed that a very high percentage of respondents in the LGA affirmed that their communities has been flooded each accounting for 100% of the responses obtained from the survey except for 20%, 10%, and 10% of respondents from Abua/Odual, Ahoada, and Ogbia. The study concluded that flood probability and severity in Rivers and Bayelsa States are increasing and there is variation in the prominence of flood height It is thus recommended that should be adequate flood preparedness for the vulnerable and risky public facilities especially educational and health facilities to prevent much loss of facilities and lives; and majority of the residents should be given more orientation programmes on flood preparedness and mitigation measures to always reduce the impact of flooding on the livelihood of individuals and corporate establishments.