Infrastructure, sustainability, and policy reform in Nigeria: An empirical study of sectoral contributions to economic growth

This study examines the impact of infrastructural development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1999 to 2022, focusing on key sectors including education, health, transportation, information and communication technology (ICT), and energy. The primary objective is to assess both the short-run and long-run contributions of these infrastructure components to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), World Development Indicators, and African Infrastructure Development Reports, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to confirm variable stationarity and the bounds test to establish co-integration. The findings reveal a significant long-run relationship between infrastructural development and economic growth. In the long run, infrastructure in education, health, ICT, and transport exerted negative effects on GDP, suggesting inefficiencies and delayed returns on investment. Conversely, energy infrastructure—measured by electricity consumption—positively influenced growth. In the short run, only health infrastructure showed a positive contribution, while other sectors had negative or insignificant effects.Excluding energy, the infrastructure sectors have underperformed despite the increased investment, owing to inefficiencies and governance issues, the study suggests. These include improved policy implementation within all sectors, enhanced oversight over various policy implementation bodies, and improved allocation of resources especially in education, health and ICT. Developing energy infrastructure and employing public-private partnerships (PPPs) are key factors in sustainable economic growth as well.